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A new year dawns, and that means it’s prediction time.
Here are a few of my business and investment predictions for 2026. Some of these will be controversial and even slightly contradictory. However, I’ll explain why two seemingly opposite ideas can both be true.
Most importantly, these are guesses. Take them with a grain of salt.
1. Increased Alpha In Being Offline
A decade ago, fewer people were online. During that period, using the Internet gave you an unfair advantage. Today, everyone is online, and whenever you do anything on the Internet, you’re competing against the entire planet. Add AI to the mix, and competition has never been fiercer.
As a business prediction, I believe being offline and local will provide a growing edge in the coming years.
Here are some examples of potential offline alpha:
Running a business that mails physical flyers or sales letters instead of relying on social media marketing
Going to a bar, party, or club instead of using a dating app
Walking through the front door and shaking the manager’s hand to get a job
Networking through in-person niche hobbies like cars, watches, or airplanes
Advertising in regional newspapers or on local television instead of buying Google ad space
Anecdotally, I needed to get some government paperwork done earlier this year.
The website for this process didn’t work, and the AI chatbot kept running me in circles. Calling the automated phone system didn’t help either.
Eventually, I did some Googling and found the contact information for the actual person in charge of the department I needed. I called, left a personal message, and ended up getting my appointment scheduled for the very next day.
As a more quantifiable example, Barnes & Noble opened 61 new stores this year and plans to open another 60 in 2026.
This is a clear indicator that many people are sick of scrolling TikTok or staring at screens, creating a growing demand for physical books and real world experiences (in this case, going to a brick-and-mortar bookstore).
With the continual uptick in automation, pounding the pavement and doing things in the real world will become a priceless skill. This may not be a specific investment thesis, but for business owners and career professionals, having an offline presence may give you a contrarian edge.
2. Precious Metals And Collectables Fail To Beat The Market
Silver and gold are back in the news.
Maybe it’s social media algorithms, but I’m constantly bombarded with ads and sales pitches to buy “investment-grade” watches and other collectible items.
My prediction? These assets fail to beat the S&P 500.
Precious metals, which are cool and certainly have their place in certain portfolios, also support a massive ecosystem of brokers and dealers.
When you buy one share of a $10 stock, you pay $10. When you buy a gold bar or silver ingot, you usually pay more than the spot price. This markup is often 10% more than the metal’s listed value.
As I write this, silver has a spot price of $79.59 per ounce. But if you want to buy a one-ounce silver coin on APMEX, you’ll pay $87.58.
Watches and other collectables have even worse spreads.
Silver peaked around $44 per ounce in 2011, then collapsed into the teens and twenties for most of the 2010s. At that same 2011 peak, the Vanguard S&P 500 ETF was trading around $125 per share. Today, it’s at $634.84.
Precious metals and collectables are fine investments when nobody wants them. But during frenzies, it can take a long-time to retrace previous highs.
3. Big Tech And AI Have A Great Year
Everyone is predicting that AI and Big Tech will implode next year.
Why?
These stocks are trading at extreme valuations, and I personally don’t invest in them, but artificial intelligence is consistently improving and being adopted by more and more people.
Even if you don’t like AI or tech, most people do. If there were no demand for “AI slop,” it wouldn’t exist. While some people may rekindle their interest in the physical world, the majority of the global population is perfectly content being online.
As long as AI and similar technologies continue to advance, large amounts of capital will keep flowing into them.
This isn’t like railroads, where you eventually run out of towns to connect, or bowling ally stocks (a weird investment bubble from the 1950’s) where demand quickly dries up. Every month the big AI platforms consistently improve. The range of what they can do expands. And, their effectiveness increase too.
Eventually AI and Big Tech will slow down and be replaced by something else. But I don’t see it happening in 2026.
Conclusion
Those are my predictions.
Being offline gives you an edge in a world where everyone competes online. Precious metals and collectibles will be profitable for dealers but disappointing for anyone trying to beat the market with them. And AI and major tech companies are likely have another great year.
Let me know what you think and if you have any predictions of your own.
Happy Holidays, and stay tuned for a new Market Bites, delivered to your inbox tomorrow!
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Disclaimer: This article is for entertainment purposes only. It is not financial advice, always do your own research.
